With gold already trading near ₹1.55 lakh per 10 grams, market analysts are debating whether the metal can push to ₹1.70 lakh or even higher by the end of 2026. Here is a summary of the major forecasts and the assumptions behind them.
Goldman Sachs: $3,700 Per Ounce
Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month gold price target to $3,700 per troy ounce, citing sustained central bank buying, rising geopolitical risk premiums, and what it calls a structural shift in how reserve managers view gold relative to other reserve assets. At $3,700 per ounce and assuming a USD/INR rate of 86, this translates to approximately ₹1,68,000 per 10 grams in India.
Kotak Securities: ₹1.65–₹1.72 Lakh
Kotak Securities's commodity research team forecasts a range of ₹1.65 to ₹1.72 lakh per 10 grams by December 2026, driven primarily by a weaker rupee and continued strong domestic demand during the festive season. Their base case assumes no significant reversal in global risk sentiment.
HDFC Securities: More Measured View
HDFC Securities takes a more conservative stance, projecting prices in the ₹1.58–₹1.65 lakh range by year-end. Their analysts point to potential headwinds from a stronger dollar and the possibility that the US Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates higher for longer than the market currently expects, which would reduce gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
Key Risks to Watch
Any sharp reversal in US monetary policy toward a more hawkish stance, a significant strengthening of the US dollar, or a resolution of major geopolitical conflicts could put pressure on gold prices. Investors should treat forecasts as probabilistic ranges rather than guaranteed outcomes and maintain appropriate diversification.